New MMOGs are launched nearly every day, but with developers and publishers not providing any official statistics it can be hard to judge their relative success. I’d still like to give it a try with this top 10 list of what I think will be the most successful subscription-based MMOGs this year in the west. That means no free-to-play or cash-shop MMOGs are included!
Most of this list is supported by actual statistics, albeit generally rather old statistics. The rest is formed by the potential of these titles or their popularity on gaming forums and websites. Some of these may be mildly surprising, but I’ve done my best to include my reasoning for each game and its position in the list.
Disagree with these results? Feel free to comment with your own lists or criticisms. I’ve tried this once prior and it’s interesting to see how much the list has changed in half a year’s time.
10. Warhammer Online
What is it?
A fantasy MMORPG released around the same time as Age of Conan that promised exciting Realm vs Realm PvP gameplay, but never lived up to the expectations. It features plainly poor PvE content and at best mediocre PvP, which resulted in a mass exodus after the first month, similar to, but not quite as severe as, AoC.
Mythic Entertainment has done a lot to improve the game since then, with plenty of new content and bug fixes, but it’s still not a very good offering amidst a sea of more alluring fantasy MMORPGs.
Why 10th?
There have been no official statistics for Warhammer Online since the 300.000 subscribers figure of March 2009. The rapid decline in WAR coverage and activity since then makes it fair to assume that the current subscriber count is closer to 170.000 to 220.000 subscribers.
That’s a fair amount, but by all accounts it looks like player counts are still steadily declining despite a free trial and occassional updates. Nothing looks to change this downward trend around as other MMORPGs (Age of Conan, Dungeons & Dragons Online, EVE Online, Lord of the Rings Online, World of WarCraft) are improving at a rate that Mythic Entertainment seems ill-equipped to keep up with.
9. Dungeons & Dragons Online
What is it?
Dungeons & Dragons Online is a partially free-to-play fantasy MMORPG that used to be entirely subscription-based. It takes a very unusual approach to fantasy MMORPG gameplay, with an almost entirely instanced game world and very party-oriented gameplay. It also takes place almost entirely inside dungeons, as the name implies.
It features a more involved combat system than usual, with physical dodging and no auto attack feature. Skills aren’t quite as important as they are in most other MMORPGs either, with most of the combat involving basic dodging and hitting, at least for melee classes.
Why 9th?
DDO was estimated at roughly 50.000 subscribers before it went partially free-to-play and it has more than tripled its subscriber counts since then according to Turbine. This would put it well over 150.000 subscribers right now and it’s looking to grow as more players hop in on the free-to-play bandwagon and then move on to a subscription in order to access all content without any hassle.
8. Aion
What is it?
A recent fantasy MMORPG by NCSoft that was supposed to bridge the gap between Asian and western play styles, but never fully realized that ideal. The resultant mixture is still too grind-heavy for the average western MMORPG player, but seems to offer fairly enjoyable PvP gameplay if you stick with it.
It doesn’t truly innovate in any regard, but its flying mechanic and more prominent faction PvP do make it stand out amongst the other subscription based fantasy MMORPGs.
Why 8th?
The grind has resulted in rapidly declining player counts, albeit nowhere near as bad as the mass exoduses of Age of Conan and Warhammer Online post-launch. It still has a sizable subscriber base in the west and it’s looking to hold a fair amount of former Lineage 2 players, but it has no potential to compete with the top 4. It’s also losing players contrary to ranks 6 and 5, although these ranks remain a toss-up between the three respective games.
It's not an Asian grinder. It's just ... grindy
7. EverQuest 2
What is it?
A direct sequel to one of the forefathers of the modern MMORPG genre, with a brand of fantasy gameplay that is unique to western hardcore-oriented MMORPGs.
Why 7th?
Its rather unique take on fantasy MMORPG gameplay, with only Vanguard providing any direct competition, ensures that EverQuest 2 is not really losing any subscribers. However it’s not gaining many subscribers either, despite its recent expansion pack that revamped the new player experience.
It was most recently estimated at roughly 200.000 active subscribers. There is no reason to assume that this number has declined.
6. Age of Conan
What is it?
It’s the ultimate example of why a MMORPG can never be counted out after a botched launch. It was buggy, inconsistent and incomplete, but FunCom took all the critique to heart and it’s now a smoothly running game with full DirectX 10 support and all the content gaps filled in. They recently even released an expansion pack which offered both low and high level content and a new starting area.
The idea here is of a more brutal than average fantasy MMORPG, with direct combat that focuses around move combinations similar to fighting games for melee. There’s also direct aiming involved for ranged attacks and magical spells, which makes for a much more involved MMORPG experience.
It features both excellent PvE content, with unusually good writing for this genre, and solid PvP and guild support. There’s even housing in the form of player-built guild fortresses.
Why 6th?
It has made an enormous comeback from mass exodus into a steady stream of returning and new subscribers. Many of its most outspoken critics at launch are now resubscribed and it’s seeing a rate of growth that’s very similar to EVE Online’s incline in player counts.
Nothing looks to stop this growth for the foreseeable future, which is why I think it’ll rank this highly by the end of the year. Right now it’s more commonly estimated at 120.00-160.000 subscribers, which would likely place it marginally below Warhammer Online.
5. LEGO Universe
What is it?
An upcoming MMOG set in the LEGO universe. It includes a more action-oriented approach to MMO gameplay, LEGO building and widely varied LEGO environments.
It also takes a good peak at those popular singleplayer/co-op LEGO games in the Batman, Harry Potter, Indiana Jones and Star Wars universes. What gameplay has been shown seems to indicate a game with a very similar vibe, platforming elements, quick-building and quirky LEGO humor.
Why 5th?
Other LEGO video games sold like wildfire when they were released and there is no reason to expect any less from LEGO Universe. It looks like a solid MMOG and LEGO experience wrapped into one appealing and slightly different package and there’s no reason to expect this game to do anything but eat a large piece of 2010′s subscriber pie after it releases in October.
This late release date is the only reason I’ve placed it below EVE Online, for I fully expect it to grow strongly after launch.
4. Final Fantasy XIV
What is it?
The next online Final Fantasy game!
It seems to be a very different take on online Final Fantasy gameplay than FFXI, with combat that leans more towards the turn-based combat of the singleplayer games in terms of style. It also has impressive graphics, both in terms of characters and environments. It also has both level and skill-based progression systems, with the basic level representing character statistics and skill levels indicating profiency in a specific area (e.g.: wielding swords).
Yet it’s also one of the least remarkable upcoming MMORPGs, with gameplay that’s very heavily inspired by FFXI and WoW. It doesn’t do much differently and it’s been completely overshadowed by just about every other upcoming MMOG on game exhibits thus far. Hands-on previews and alpha experiences have also indicated that combat is not where it should be in FFXIV and is not very appealing at this point.
Square Enix also released an early benchmark tool which showed off terrible voice acting and game performance similar to Age of Conan in DirectX 10 mode. This means high system requirements, which isn’t condusive to gaining a lot of subscribers. It’s also worth noting that only a single character slot is included in the subscription, with additional slots costing $3 per month or $1 for inventory characters.
Why 4th?
It’s the next entry in one of the most popular video game franchises worldwide, albeit mostly in Japan. It’s also a fairly popular franchise in the United States and the console version is not slated to release at the same time, so it looks like it should have a very sizable amount of western PC subscribers after it launches on September 22nd (US) and 30th (EU).
Despite being one of the most anticipated MMORPGs, I suspect it will not do too well after the first month and thus not manage to surpass EVE Online by the end of the year in the west. It looks pretty, but other than that seems to have curiously little going for it according to both hands-on previews and gameplay footage shown thus far. Hopefully that will change in the next 3 months, but I highly doubt it.
3. EVE Online
What is it?
A sandbox style space simulator with hundreds of thousands of players sharing the same universe. It combines a player-driven economy, with almost every item in the game manufactured by players, with solid strategic space combat that lacks direct control.
It’s also the most beautiful MMORPG on the market today. But more importantly, it offers grand-scale player conflict in the form of 0.0 territory control. Player alliances can build stations in this space in order to claim it for their own and frequently wage war over resource-rich systems or plain old pride. It’s the most renown and most successful PvP MMORPG to date, with excellent gameplay if you have the stomach and patience for it.
Why 3rd?
It’s estimated at 350.000 subscribers today which puts it in a solid 2nd place and it’s still growing. Only a few weeks ago EVE players broke yet another concurrent user record by breaking the 60.000 concurrent users barrier during EVE Alliance Tournament 8.
It’s constantly improved by regular free expansions from Icelandic developer CCP and there doesn’t look to be an end in sight for this, especially after the major visual overhauls of last year. However, its steady growth isn’t quite steep enough to overcome the anticipated spike in LotRO subscribers for the end of this year, so it’s ranked 3rd rather than its current-day 2nd place ranking.
There’s also serious competition looming on the horizon in the form of Jumpgate: Evolution, but I’m not expecting that game to launch this year.
2. The Lord of the Rings Online
What is it?
Arguably the best PvE fantasy MMORPG to date, with heaps of atmosphere and an incredibly friendly community. It loans heavily from World of WarCraft in terms of gameplay mechanics, but many find its PvE offerings to be more enjoyable and certainly more immersive.
It has recently seen two expansions, which have added a great deal of additional variety to the PvE experience. As all this PvE-talk implies, there is PvP in the form of a monster play feature, but it’s mostly overlooked by Turbine.
Why 2nd?
There is no doubt in my mind that The Lord of the Rings Online will rank 2nd by the end of this year, due to its partial free-to-play move this fall.
Dungeons & Dragons Online received the same treatment and saw its subscriber figures triple, but LotRO looks to further restrict the free-to-play experience, making subscriptions even more alluring. So it’s likely that LotRO will also see an enormous influx of new subscribers, who wish to partake in all the content the game has to offer after having sampled the free-to-play segment.
It’s currently estimated at anywhere between 200.000 and 300.000 subscribers, but the free-to-play move should finally push it firmly past EVE Online and into second place.
Soon everyone can create their own Human Captain! For free!
1. World of WarCraft
What is it?
You don’t really have to ask do you?
World of WarCraft is the most popular subscription-based fantasy MMORPG ever created, which set the standard for most MMORPGs since… for better and worse. It’s loved and reviled in equal measure, but there’s no denying the fact that WoW is king in terms of the sheer amount of content it contains and the level of polish it exudes.
It’s also worth noting that Blizzard is looking to pull a FunCom, by tackling the game’s most criticized element: the dreary early leveling experience. The upcoming Cataclysm expansion pack will entirely revamp the “old world” of WarCraft to have it adhere to the new standard of quality set with more recently added WoW content. Could it finally no longer be a mere grind to 80? Err.. 85?
Why 1st?
It has over 11 million subscribers worldwide and half of those reside in the west. As such it has more than ten times more subscribers than its closest competition, EVE Online. There’s absolutely nothing that’s going to knock this game off its throne this year.
However, there are darker times ahead for this champion, with several strong competitors looming on the horizon. I daresay that the combination of Guild Wars 2 and Star Wars: The Old Republic in 2011 will finally prove too much for this behemoth.
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WOW no longer holds 11m subs but more along the lines of 5 million. Not that its a small number but 11m was what it had around 2006-2007. People have been leaving WOW in droves ever since the most recent expansion.
I’d also like to add that I agree with the Age of Conan assessment. The game is amazing compared to what it was at launch. Its definitely worth a go.
Blizzard’s Mike Morhaime stated in February of this year that WoW still had 11.5 million subscribers worldwide. Perhaps you’ve confused the western subscriber figures for the worldwide subscriber figures? It’s true that there are ‘only’ roughly 5.5 million western subscribers.
I’m not sure about people leaving the game in droves, because I haven’t played it since 2006 so I’ll have to defer to your judgement. I do know that it didn’t reach 11 million subscribers until late 2008, this can be found on google quite easily.
almost all the old WOW players (i am one of them) left the game because every expansion makes the game easise and “cheaper”. from a great hardcore experience it has become almost a casual gamer mmorpg. people says the number of subscribers shows clearly that Blizzard made the right moves, but I disagree. if casual players do not like levelling, then blizzard should have made distinct servers with PVP only content or with insta-capped players, like unofficial server do. mixing together people that earned with blood and sweat their purples witn newcomers that in 2 weeks jump at level 85 due to new politics, hew! this is INSULTING the fan base!
I suppose that may be true of those who’ve played all the years since launch, but I actually know a lot of former players (those who quit long ago) who have recently returned to the game. There seem to be a lot more gamers who applaud these casual-friendly changes, amongst newcomers and existing players alike.
It definitely doesn’t feel right that newcomers should have an easier time of obtaining the same items and end-game kills as existing players. Blizzard should do something to maintain the status of these achievements. But I do agree with their more casual approach to the rest of the game, for it makes for a more enjoyable game not only to newcomers but existing players as well. Faster leveling and earlier mounts certainly make alts much less of a bore.
Must say I have to disagree with this. WoW in WotLK has introduced many good compromises from the old “hit a brick wall at max level ’cause you’re not in a hardcore guild” problems. It’s been good that I could at least get some good gear in heroics, albeit it was a slow crawl until I finally found a for real casual raiding guild (just can’t put up with “applications” and “vetting”; more work than work is not fun). Now I have good gear but still not the uber-heroic of the hardcore players. And I’m still progressing and having fun. Seems fair.
I should also say that I play Eve as well, and while I like some aspects of Eve, there are many things I appreciate more about WoW. Blizzard has put much more time into polishing its UI. More importantly to this thread, they also have made it so one quest (mission in Eve) isn’t so random it can take anywhere from five minutes to three hours to do like in Eve. Eve also has the problem that once the rudimentary tutorials are done, one really has to start reading third party sources to figure out what to do. This is unreliable and many times aggravating. In WoW, there are lots of hints in-game.
Casual-friendly isn’t a bad thing, and doesn’t keep the people who WANT to spend six hours a night from playing, and who want to study the numbers from studying. Just makes for broader appeal.
Im not a WoW player, I have tried it but disliked it, I play eq2 and have done for 4 years. I guess making it easier for newcomers makes good business sense when the game is beyond its first few years. The game needs to attract new gamers to keep it alive. One of the things I find off putting about joining a new MMO is considering the amount of hard work and effort it took to get to a good level, with good gear in EQ2, I love eq2, but if I had played WoW first I probably never would have played eq2 as the learning curve is so steep for all MMO’s and then of course is the levelling and factions and unlocking instances, languages to par take in groups quests. The list of things you need to accomplish to be able to do quests in some raid zones and group zone (or even to get in) is ever expanding and quite frequently you will have a relative newbie who has shot to level 90 but missed many quest lines that are pre-requisites to end game content. This means they need to be replaced. This prospect when joining an established MMO is daunting (especially in a game like EQ2 where most of the player base is at end game content). So to make the game more accessible to the average casual gamer, Blizzard has made getting to end game easier because that way they will retain new comers whereas EQ2 might lose new comers after 6 weeks of having grinded quests alone to get to end game to then not have access to it.
sheer amount of content of WoW? surely FFXI has more “content”, O_o
Am I the only one that noticed you listed two games that arent even released yet and wont be released this year?
And the title of your article, Most Successful MMOs of 2010,what are you going off of? Subs or personal opinion? Because you have games EQ2 and WAR rated lower than AgeOfConan, while AOC still has a lower Sub count that both of those games.
Star Wars, GW2-Old News. RIFT is where its at ;)
I wonder which games you’re talking about? The only two games I’ve listed that haven’t been released yet are Final Fantasy XIV and LEGO Universe. The former is scheduled for September 30th and the latter for October 26th, so they’ll both be released in 2010 with months to spare. They’re also both looking to get quite a large following, at least in the beginning, due to their respective franchises.
These rankings are based on projected subs by the end of 2010. This is mostly based on what few statistics are publicly available (mostly old), popularity on various game tracking sites (Xfire, Raptr, GamerDNA) and the trend in subscriptions for each game.
EQ2 was losing subs at the time of writing, but this trend was turned around with the sudden move to partial F2P last month. As a result it’ll likely retain its current 4th place in the market in terms of subscribers.
WAR was similarly losings subs, but hasn’t quite managed to turn this around. Meanwhile AoC has been gaining subs quite rapidly during the past 6 months. WAR did have more subscribers earlier this year, but I presumed that this would no longer be the case by the end of 2010.
That prediction seems to be coming true, with AoC now ranking higher than WAR on GamerDNA, Raptr and Xfire in terms of recent player activity. That is the activity in the past 1-3 months. It says a lot that these sites all provide the same picture despite the fact that they’re all heavily schewed in WAR’s favor: GamerDNA has tracked 12.2K total WAR players versus 7.8K total AoC players, for example.
You must clarify if your success is based on USA market or world wide? because Aion is NEVER behind Age of Conan in terms of subs. Aion is big in Korea and China and that ALONE is probably 10 times the number of current AoC population.
Since when are China and Korea part of “the west”? That would be Europe and North America, obviously.
WoW has dumbed itself down alot, especially with the last expansion. Pick a Druid or a Pally and you are set in WoW, other classes are still good but their traditional roles have became rather redundant. A Druid can be a competant spellcaster, a healer, a tank, or a melee dps. All you need is to respec. And with Dual spec you can be specced for Raid tanking and specced as a backup healer. That shafts alot of classes who have only 1 role or at most 2 roles they can fill.
in truth wows days are numbered as soon as fallout online or star wars the old republic comes out. from the almost 7 years i was on/in wow my self believe me people are just waiting for something better to come along.
all the wow clones are not going to make you uproot your 2-7 year time investment. all the guilds I’ve been in and subsequently left or gotten kicked out of for taking a 1-3 month wow break to try another game or just because i simply had enough for the time being.
in truth wows subsequent expansions really have made the game more on the near retarded side of things. boss’s now inform groups what spell there about to cast with out the need for an U.I. add on. leveling a character is ridiculously fast and simple, this could for me at least be attributed to the “I’ve been there done that and know what im doing now thing”
p.v.p is just boring there’s not enough verity anymore people are just out right dumb in most case’s its not alliance or horde either ( i play both sides) its honestly one of two things either a little child who has no idea what team work is or just some genuine idiot who could care less.)
As Well alot of whats made me quit and yes i’ve been off wow for about 3 months again now, nor do i have any interest in getting and playing cataclysm (3rd expansion to wow) frankly im dead tired of the stupidity and lack of intelligent players.
WoW used to force a player to be better or you didn’t finish a dungeon (20 man scholomance) (20 man upper black rock spire) if you where there you remember the hatred and frustration but you could not wait to go again. how ever it made people play better rather then spam 1 AoE or frost bolt or what have you…. and yah you will likely still finish an instance and get your emblems or gear but wheres the fun in it at this point?
in my experience the first 2 years i played where the most fun even burning crusade held my interest for a month. i had 5 60′s pre expansions and had them all in dungeon 1 gear and was doing the dungeon 2 quest on the paladin at the time i was playing.
those days are long gone but wow defiantly in a lot of peoples minds has not changed for the better and the simple fact that each new expansion completely negates any desire or need for the player community to even bother playing thru old content to any thing more then level which go’s so fast theres no point in playing the old conetnt.
I have never played one of these games and dont think I ever will my location and computers abilities do not and probably never will be able to handle the speeds required by these types of games.
A game I have been playing since 2003 is Ultimate Dominion.
Ultimate Dominion has never been big to the scales that the above games have been, it has always been a small community of close players that like the older style text based gameplay with live chat as a constant.
Unfortunatly our playerbase is shrinking :(
Being a text based game in the current gaming environment probably means it’s playerbase will continue to shrink and eventually we will cease to exist….
I was hoping that posting this here may entice a few players, that are no longer interested in the above type of games, to come and try us out.
I hope to see some of you come and try us out :)